Black Friday Shopping May Escape Inflation's Shadow

Black Friday is predicted to be the busiest shopping day in terms of the number of shopping visits for the holiday season in the U.S., according to Sensormatic Solutions by Johnson Controls JCI . Brian Field, global leader of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic Solutions, said in an interview, “Black Friday will positively be the biggest shopping day of the year, hands down. There is something about the ritual of shopping on Black Friday, making it an event as much as a day to buy something.” The press release showed Black Friday (Nov. 25), the Friday before Christmas (Dec. 23) and the day after Christmas (Dec. 26) are expected to be among the busiest shopping days this holiday season.

Shopping visits to physical retail stores year-to-date for 2022 are flat compared to last year for the same period. In the years leading up to the pandemic, specifically from 2016 to 2019, foot traffic to stores was trending down about 5%, so for 2022, being flat is a positive sign.“We are on the other side of the pandemic with more consumers buying online and in stores,” Field said. “Using 2021 as a barometer, being flat going into the holiday season is great.” Sensormatic Solutions measures the holiday period as six weeks, starting the Sunday before Thanksgiving through December 31st.

Based on fuel prices in 2022, many retailers have reported that customers are making fewer trips to the stores but bundling purchases and spending more money per trip. Inflationary pricing has not significantly impacted consumer spending, with total retail sales up 9.9% through August 2022. Field said, “We have not seen this large of a consumer price increase in 40 years, but, with that said, the organic improvement in shopper visits is suggesting that inflationary pricing may not impact holiday shopping visits.” The recent Fed interest rate hike may deter some holiday shoppers from spending more on holiday purchases than planned.

The complete list of predicted busiest shopping days in the U.S. is as follows:

1. Friday, November 25 – Black Friday
2. Friday, December 23 – Friday before Christmas
3. Monday, December 26 – Day after Christmas, aka “Boxing Day”
4. Saturday, December 17 – Super Saturday
5. Saturday, November 26 – Saturday after Black Friday
6. Saturday, December 10 – Second Saturday in December
7. Thursday, December 22 – Thursday before Christmas
8. Saturday, December 3 – First Saturday in December
9. Sunday, December 18 – Sunday before Christmas
10. Wednesday, December 21 – Wednesday before Christmas

On average, the top 10 busiest shopping days in the U.S. account for approximately 40% of all holiday retail traffic. However, retailers might expect even larger numbers this year as high gas prices are expected to create more shopping intensity on the busiest days as shoppers make fewer individual trips. Field shared, "We just completed a shopper survey with results being revealed in early October, but what I can share is that respondents did state they plan to visit more retail stores on Black Friday. This is a great sign for physical retailers."